Forecasting of Tourism Demand: Methodological Advancement in Search of Suitable Model

Abstract

Travel and Tourism is one of the “World’s largest industries and generator of quality jobs” (World Travel and Tourism Council). Day by day tourism is getting popularity, and its contribution in world economy is also increasing. People are travelling mostly due to inversions. A person who lives in arid plains, one in a year wants to travel to see the beauty of mountains or Sea. A Person who works in a very stressful and compact schedule, also want to relax by travelling or finding recreation. Life style generated stress and boredom are affecting not only productivity of a person but also health of that person. Education is also a significant factor for tourism. The case study of the tourism demand forecasting is done in context of Jaipur city of Rajasthan State in India. Jaipur city is the capital of the state Rajasthan. It has both cultural and natural sites as attraction for tourists. Forecasting Tourism demand is an essential tool to predict the future of this industry in a particular Region. For the forecasting of tourism demand in Jaipur city time series analysis method is used. The paper is written to analyze the trends in tourist arrivals and the future of tourism in the city, and it is an exercise to find out best model for forecasting of tourism demand. It will be useful in proper of use of resources and appropriate planning of tourism in the city.